Lukashenka Throws Beijing Slipknot On Himself

• ANDREI MIKHAILOVICH
• 2.10.2023, 8:25

On the dictator's global mistake.

Back to our ever-confident non-garantor, who has been bargaining independence since the first month of his legitimate term in office.

It was possible to hold on to power without popular unrest only by constantly increasing the income of the citizens. The search for finances, which was written about earlier, slowly pushed the dictator into the hands of a mildly aggressive country of one and a half billion people with an eternity to spare. As a result, Lukashenka threw the Beijing slipknot on the country with his own hands.

Lukashenka started building bridges to China back in the mid-noughties, as soon as he realised that his scenario of selling the country under the guise of integration with Moscow had failed. Relations with the federation were deteriorating in front of our eyes, and there were several trade, gas and oil wars - that's where the trip to Venezuela's brother Hugo originated. The country had been under European Union sanctions since as early as 1997. They were only extended in 1998 and 2004. Lukashenka vitally needed a new strategic partner, close in spirit, preferably a totalitarian one, and he found it.

Slowly and surely, the trade of national interests in exchange for credits was launched. Yes, it is loans that dominate in the structure of Chinese investments in Belarus. Their share is constantly growing, having reached 70 per cent. And these are not start-up projects like "Great Stone" - the Belarusian analogue of "Skolkovo" with elements of mechanical engineering and even warehouse logistics. No, we are not talking about investment projects. Loans are given in real money - remember how they are distributed and where they end up in their pockets? At the same time, the terms of such loans blindingly resemble the scenario of Chinese "investment" in Africa and the ex-Soviet Central Asian republics. The Celestial Empire grants them on condition that at least half of the funds will be used to pay for the services of Chinese contractors and purchase Chinese equipment, stimulating their own production.

There are also other areas of close co-operation between the countries. For example, education. More than a thousand students from China study at the Belarusian State University alone, which exceeds the number of Russian students "integrated into the union" in Belarus as a whole. Every year the number of applicants from China continues to grow, taking the places away from the local younger generation. In turn, this pushes a mass of young intelligent Belarusian youth to work in Russian cities, where they often find life partners, assimilate with the local population and stay forever, filling the demographic hole of the decaying under-imperialistic country. Alas.

One third of BSU students in Minsk are Chinese citizens. They will not all go home either, but will gently settle down in new territories. However, the expansion does not end here. The educational offensive is also proceeding in one more imperceptible direction. For example, Chinese is taught as the main foreign language in more than ten schools in the capital of Belarus. This is how the future cadres are forged to ensure the hegemony of the dragon in Europe, this is how the future of one's nation is sold for the benefit of one man, who is not able to transfer power in a dignified and timely manner.

Almost all the industries of interest to the Chinese comrades were given to Beijing under the guise of development of industrial production in Belarus. Sometimes it caused strong discontent of Moscow. Subsequently, the Kremlin would find a way to extinguish this irritation. And it would do it very masterfully, with Beijing's direct approval.

The implementation of such a takeover scheme allows the leaders of both countries to draw parallels. The decision to target Ukraine is just one of them. But this was a global mistake, which will lead to the collapse of the aggressor country in the long run. Ukraine's task is to head this process, while the one of the renewed Belarus is to speed it up. Only in this case Belarus will be able to put an end to the occupation of its country before it finally turns into the western regions of the federation under the guise of a "union state".

I guess the question will immediately arise: "What does it have to do with the Chinese dragon's shadow over Belarus?". In fact, all the ongoing processes should be considered in complex - in the context of synchronicity, but in no way competition. The sovereign of relations is defined, vassals are also defined; but the medieval European rule "my vassal's vassal is not my vassal" does not work here.

Well, let's continue.

Andrei Mikhailovich, The Observer