Natallia Radzina: Lukashenka Fell Into Trap

• 17.04.2025, 12:53

The dictator does not know where to run.

Editor-in-Chief of the website Charter97.org Natallia Radzina gave a long interview on the YouTube channel of the famous Russian journalist Evgeny Kiselev.

One of the main topics of conversation was the visit to Minsk of the director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service Sergei Naryshkin.

According to Evgeny Kiselev, the visit of the head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service is more political than professional. The heads of the special services sometimes go to other countries on some kind of working trips, but, as a rule, nothing is known about them. Or very little is known due to the specifics of the work of the special services. Why did Naryshkin talk about “40 barrels of prisoners” in Minsk?

Natallia Radzina believes that the head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service used Minsk to make several loud statements:

— First of all, he stated that a ceasefire with Ukraine is possible only on the condition of the practical capitulation of this country. He repeated the theses that demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, the neutral status of the country and recognition by Ukraine of the territories seized by Russia, that is, four regions and the Crimea, are necessary. This was a clear message: under what conditions a ceasefire from Russia is possible. Threats were also made against the Baltic countries and Poland. It was, of course, absolutely groundless that the Baltic countries and Poland were allegedly behaving aggressively towards Belarus and Russia. This is apparently about the withdrawal of these countries from the Ottawa Convention and the intention to place anti-personnel mines on the borders with Belarus and Russia.

I regard his visit, these statements as an operation to intimidate Europe, as forcing Europe to an obscene peace. Naryshkin says directly: “Agree to our conditions for Ukraine's capitulation. Stop arming Ukraine. Lift sanctions against us. Do not deploy peacekeepers on the border with Belarus.” We understand that the latter worries them very much, because the deployment of European peacekeepers on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border will free tens of thousands of Ukrainian servicemen and transfer them to the combat zone.

The European Union should not succumb to the Kremlin's blackmail, the journalist believes:

— I am sure that Europe will not go for this blackmail. There has already been a comment from Polish President Andrzej Duda, who said that this is classic Russian disinformation. That Russia is transferring nuclear weapons to Belarus, threatening NATO and the EU, and has also been implementing harsh, bloodthirsty imperialism for three years, attacking Ukraine.

Of course, Naryshkin voiced Putin's words. And it is completely understandable why this was said in Minsk. Because this demonstrates that the territory of Belarus can be used by Russia for a repeated attack on Ukraine, as well as possible aggression against Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Poland.

Radzina draws attention to the danger of the Belarusian-Russian exercises “West-2025”:

— I myself have just returned from Lithuania, and I can say that everyone in the country is concerned about the upcoming Belarusian-Russian exercises “West-2025” this autumn. Let me remind you that recently the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrsky said that as a result of these exercises, as in 2022, an offensive group could be formed. At the moment, we are not seeing any serious movement of Russian equipment and military personnel to Belarus. But this is happening gradually. For example, on April 5, there was information that 14 carriages with Russian military equipment and one passenger carriage with personnel arrived in Belarus. That is, a gradual movement of Russian military personnel and Russian equipment is taking place.

The exercise is planned, let me remind you, for September. We need to closely monitor what will happen. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys has already stated that NATO will react to these exercises if they threaten neighboring countries. But I would say that we need to react now.

By the way, at the meeting between Naryshkin and Lukashenka, I noticed that the Belarusian dictator behaved quite calmly and did not support Naryshkin's aggressive statements. Of course, he did not contradict them in any way. But he mostly kept quiet, said some general phrases about the “union state”, the determination to work together. He looked quite scared. And I wondered: why?

What is Lukashenka afraid of?

— I looked at how Ukrainian experts react to threats from Belarus and the upcoming exercises, — says Natallia Radzina. — They all declare as one that if there is an attempt to invade again from the territory of Belarus by Russian troops, they will not even have time to approach the Ukrainian-Belarusian border before they will immediately launch preventive missile strikes. Not only on military facilities in Belarus, but also on railways, gas and oil pipelines, and Belarusian enterprises. They name the oil refineries in Mozyr and Novopolotsk, large enterprises such as Belaruskali and BMZ. And they say directly: “The Belarusian economy will be destroyed instantly.”

I think that Lukashenka hears this. He understands what an attempt to invade Ukraine again is fraught with. And NATO member states should declare the same today. If there is any movement towards the borders with Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, measures should be taken immediately, including missile strikes on Russian territory, all the way to Moscow. This message needs to be conveyed very clearly, distinctly and loudly to the Russian leadership.

— Are you sure that the leaders of European countries, NATO countries located on the European continent, are ready for such radical actions?

— They will have to be ready for such radical actions. Otherwise, how will they defend themselves from Russian aggression?

— No, I understand that they might agree to launch some preventive strikes on troops. Or on some military facilities. If it becomes obvious that troops are moving, say, towards the Polish or Lithuanian border through the territory of Belarus. But all the way to Moscow? Honestly, I am not so sure about that.

— And why? Why is it okay to hit Kyiv and not Moscow? I don’t understand this logic.

— No, I don’t understand it either. But the problem is that in some European capitals such readiness is not observed.

— An epiphany is happening. Yes, slowly. Europe is bureaucratized. Yes, it is difficult for them to make decisions. But gradually they come to the understanding that today no one but themselves will help them. And in this situation, they will have to act decisively. Therefore, the Europeans are now working to strengthen their own defense capabilities and are thinking about how to react in the event of real threats. Because the attack of the Russian army on the Baltic countries and Poland will happen. If the so-called ceasefire is concluded in Ukraine on Putin's terms, the Russian army will rearm and renew its personnel. And then they will move on Europe. I do not think that the attack on Europe will happen in parallel with the continuation of the war in Ukraine. But if “peace” is concluded on Putin's terms, this will lead to the absorption of the rest of Ukraine by Russia, as well as to an attack on the EU countries.

Natallia Radzina believes that sanctions against Russia should not be lifted under any circumstances now:

— President Gitanas Nausėda said that Russia could attack Lithuania in five years, but if sanctions against the Kremlin are lifted, the attack will happen in two years. And the conclusion of a ceasefire implies the lifting of sanctions against the Kremlin. This is what Moscow is lobbying for in negotiations with the United States. In Europe, there is an understanding that this will lead to catastrophic consequences. And I hope that the European Union will not lift sanctions against Russia, will not follow Trump, who, as we see today, is extremely loyal to dictator Putin. Nevertheless, we must give credit to the US President: despite flirting with the Russian dictator, he recently extended sanctions against the Russian Federation. And this is certainly encouraging.

According to Yevgeny Kiselyov, the most painful and most effective sanctions are those imposed against Russia by the European Union. Putin will not agree to any peace or ceasefire without lifting these sanctions. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky took a principled position and stated that the transfer of all territories of the Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Luhansk and Kherson regions, as Putin demands, is impossible. This is the red line that Ukraine will never cross. Every day, the conviction grows stronger that by April 29 — and Trump would clearly like to do this by his 100 days in office — it will not be possible to achieve the signing of any agreement.

Natallia Radzina believes that there will be no truce in the near future.

— There will be no truce: just as there was none in 24 hours, there will be none by Easter or by Trump's 100 days in office. The US President has been looking ridiculous lately. Enough talking about how he or his special representatives and advisers “had a good conversation” with Putin. And against this backdrop, shelling of Ukrainian cities continues, killings of civilians continue. And we see that Russia has absolutely no intention of stopping this war, so there is no talk of lifting sanctions on the Russian regime from Europe now. The EU understands that it would be suicidal if they lifted sanctions on the Russian regime. The US is indeed fenced off by the Atlantic Ocean, but Europe is under direct threat. Therefore, Trump can continue to negotiate with Putin about anything, but the EU today needs to think first of all about its own security, help Ukraine in every way possible, and understand that no reconciliation with Putin's Russia is possible at this stage.

Yevgeny Kiselyov expressed the opinion that Putin wants to completely subjugate Ukraine and continues to insist on a change of power in the country. It is no coincidence that demands are constantly being made to hold presidential elections in Ukraine. Obviously, this is what is meant by the condition of “denazification” of the Ukrainian state.

The Editor-in-Chief of the Charter97.org website believes that only Ukrainians will decide when the presidential elections will be held in the country and who will be the president of the country:

— Trump will not decide, Putin will not decide. By the condition of denazification, I mean not only a change of the president of Ukraine, but also the genocide of the Ukrainian people. Because we understand what will happen in the rest of Ukraine, not yet occupied, if the Russian imperial regime continues to exist. After the so-called truce, the hot phase of the war may end for some time, but hybrid attacks will continue and even intensify. Gradually, the entire territory of Ukraine will fall under the control of the Kremlin.

Today, there is a consensus among all political forces in Ukraine that declare that holding presidential elections during martial law is impossible. The Verkhovna Rada voted to extend martial law in the country until August 6.

Yevgeny Kiselyov suggested that Lukashenka is interested in Putin losing the war in Ukraine, because otherwise he will be drawn into this war.

Natallia Radzina believes that Lukashenka is in a very difficult situation today:

— But I don’t think he would like Putin to lose. He is satisfied with the temporary peace that Putin insists on. He would be satisfied with Ukraine’s capitulation, Ukraine’s recognition of the captured territories as Russian, and the further lifting of sanctions against both Russia and Belarus. But he would not be satisfied with the scenario, I agree, of Putin’s complete victory and his unleashing a full-scale war against neighboring countries. Because in this case, the territory of Belarus and the Belarusian army will inevitably be drawn into the war. And he understands perfectly well that not only will the Ukrainians launch missile strikes on the territory of Belarus, but there will immediately be a harsh response from NATO. In this situation, he will inevitably lose power.

Russia’s victory in this war is also dangerous for him. Because he understands that Putin, inspired by the seizure of new territories, will finally annex Belarus. And in this case, he will also lose his place in the sun. Therefore, Lukashenka would be satisfied with a truce at this stage and a gradual lifting of sanctions against him and Russia. He hopes that he will be able to sit it out and preserve his regime. But we see that Putin does not intend to stop, that no one, neither Ukraine nor Europe, will agree to such truce conditions. And the US will not be able to, will not find enough leverage to put pressure on them in this situation. Therefore, now Lukashenka looks at what is happening with sadness and understands that he is in a trap.

In the event of a repeated offensive of Russian troops from the territory of Belarus, Ukraine is ready not only to launch missile strikes, but also states that units of Belarusian volunteers who are fighting in Ukraine may cross the Belarusian-Ukrainian border. And I think that they will enter Belarus accompanied by their Ukrainian comrades. The Belarusian army will immediately go over to their side, and the liberation of the country will happen very quickly, in a matter of days.

We have already discussed the structure of the Belarusian government in the last program, and I said that the army leadership, that is, if we are talking about the General Staff, the Minister of Defense, is really pro-Russian. But the middle and junior officers and privates do not want to fight against the Ukrainians and participate in Russia's military adventures. These people, I am sure, will lay down their arms or go over to the side of the Belarusian volunteers. Let me remind you that, in addition to the Kalinouski regiment, there are other Belarusian units. Thousands of Belarusians serve in Ukrainian military units. This is a fairly large number of well-trained people who know how to fight, who have been through hot spots. Lukashenka understands all these threats. In the event of an intensification of military actions using the territory of Belarus, the dictator will inevitably lose power.