Lukashenka Keeps Stepping On The Same Rake
- 22.04.2025, 12:14
The Belarusian authorities have returned to ruthless dumping.
After many months of continuous decline, potash exports from Belarus to China suddenly increased in March. At the same time, the revenues from potash exports of Belarusian competitors, Canada and Russia, were falling. Apparently, the Belarusian authorities have decided to walk on the same rake again. The principle: volumes over prices is back in business.
In March, revenues from Belarusian potash exports to China increased by 6.4 percent. As a result, Belarus broke into first place among fertilizer suppliers to China. Because export volumes from Russia fell by 40 percent, from Canada — by almost 30 per cent.
The Belarusian achievement itself is not particularly impressive. It was easy to grow compared to March last year. In March last year, potash exports fell almost twofold.
But Belarusian potash exports grew against the backdrop of a decrease in fertilizer purchases by China. Moreover, both the cost and physical volumes of exports are decreasing. In the first quarter of this year, China spent a little over a billion dollars on the purchase of potash fertilizers, or 18.5 percent less than a year ago. Physical export volumes decreased by 7.6 percent. That is, despite some growth in world prices, China bought fertilizers cheaper than a year ago.
Is volume more important than price again?
Therefore, it is not surprising that other suppliers decided to reduce exports in order to push prices up a little. And the Belarusian authorities, apparently, decided to take advantage of this. To act as a violator of the convention.
Moreover, the Belarusian authorities are no strangers to this role. Since the beginning of 2023, Belarus has proclaimed the principle: volumes are above price. Belaruskali sold fertilizers at a discount, which on the Chinese market reached at least 40 percent.
The ruthless dumping had its consequences and fertilizer prices began to decline. And Belarus suffered the most from this. So last autumn Lukashenka complained that at current prices Belarusian potash had to be sold at a loss.
“Why sell this product for next to nothing, almost at cost, and sometimes even lower. We need to negotiate with potash fertilizer producers about reducing production,” he said.
After that, Belaruskali really did reduce both production volumes and exports. However, this did not help prices much. At least, the prices of Belarusian potash exports to China. Its cost continued to fall until March of this year. Because it is naive to try to influence prices if your buyer has a choice of where to buy, and you have no choice of who to sell to.
So the patience of the Belarusian authorities did not last long. It seems that the principle: volumes are above price, is returning. Because prices are not growing anyway, and money is really needed.
Andrei Branisheuski, planbmedia.it