Andrei Sannikov: Belarus Deserves Serious Fight

• Andrei Sannikov
• 24.04.2025, 15:40

Europe now has a historic opportunity.

The meeting in London, which was supposed to include the foreign ministers of the U.S., Ukraine, France, and the UK, has been disrupted, and U.S. President Donald Trump lashed out at Volodymyr Zelensky for his statements refusing to recognize Crimea as Russian.

Are the United States pulling out of the negotiations? What should Ukraine and the EU expect? How might this affect Belarus? The website Charter97.org spoke with Andrei Sannikov, the leader of the European Belarus Civil Campaign:

— The recent events did not come as a surprise. The tactic the U.S. has been using since President Trump took office is one of coercive blackmail, directed only at one side — Ukraine. What does this consist of? Let’s recall the history of these negotiations: Ukraine is continually subjected to various conditions. If Ukraine doesn’t agree immediately, they are accused of sabotaging the negotiations and even tougher conditions are then imposed. For example, the initial demands included transferring control over rare earth metals to the U.S., and now they’re demanding that Zelensky recognize Crimea as Russian — only then will talks begin. I don’t know how anyone can see this as effective, but I think, it’s absolutely counterproductive. Clearly, for the President of Ukraine, agreeing to this would be political suicide. Therefore, Ukraine insists first on conditions being established for negotiations — a ceasefire — and only then talks at a high level.

Russia, meanwhile, acts brazenly and cynically: it shells civilians. Immediately after the talks were supposed to begin in London, barbaric shelling of Kyiv and Kharkiv occurred, resulting in casualties, including children.

I must also point out that Ukraine has made serious mistakes in its negotiations with the West. For instance, demanding a final decision on NATO membership now is tactically incorrect.

— On the eve of the negotiations, Europe quite strongly united in support of Ukraine, declaring red lines. The EU opposes recognizing Crimea as Russian and refuses to lift sanctions on Russia. Has Europe become a full-fledged player on the international stage?

— Europe now has a chance to become a player. So far, we are hearing statements, but even among these, there are dissenting voices. It’s not just Hungary and Slovakia, but among the bigger countries too, not everyone is happy about the EU consolidating in support of Ukraine. Nevertheless, this is a historic chance. What Europeans need to understand is that unity in political and military support for Ukraine is the only way to protect and strengthen their own security and interests.

That’s why even agreeing to consider the status of Crimea would be madness and a blow to Europe’s own security.

It’s clear that Russia very much wants Crimea. Putin doesn’t hide this and is willing to be more flexible on other occupied territories. Crimea is a strategic region, and handing it over to Russia would be like shooting oneself not in the foot, but in the head. If Crimea goes, the next targets will inevitably be the Baltic states. After expanding its presence in the Black Sea, Russia will move on to the Baltic, which has been weakened since Finland and Sweden joined NATO. So this position is about defending Europe’s own interests and security. Putin’s desire to divide the world between Russia and the U.S. is unacceptable for Europe.

— What do these recent events mean for Belarus? With the collapse of talks and the U.S. distancing itself from the war, what should we in Belarus expect?

— Belarus has disappeared from the world’s radar. This is partly the fault of certain circles in the West who promote empty and inflated figures claiming to be the opposition. They simply don’t fit into the context of serious global discussions.

Yet Belarus is a key country not only for the region but for international security. If we seriously consider today’s global processes, we must recognize that many negative trends began in Belarus. Nothing happens by chance. Events in Belarus undoubtedly influenced the strengthening of dictatorial regimes around the world, the rise in gross human rights violations, and crimes against humanity. Western democracies showed far too lenient an attitude toward Lukashenka — “the village fool,” as he was seen — despite his open drive to build a feudal dictatorship in Belarus. The same “eyes closed, business open” policy was typical of Western democracies toward other autocracies that emerged in the past quarter-century. This leniency inevitably leads to wars. And now war has come to Europe. Therefore, our task today is to help end this war and ensure Ukraine wins. Only such an outcome will bring us independence, security, and freedom.

I am sure that Putin will not succeed in subjugating, occupying, or dividing Ukraine. The same applies to Belarus. I am convinced that Belarus will not be absorbed into Russia. But we have to fight for this — fight seriously — to avoid greater escalation in our region. Belarus is already involved in the war thanks to Lukashenka, who has handed our territory over to the Russian war machine. Russian aggression will not stop by itself; it must be stopped. Europe’s security will only be guaranteed when Ukraine, within its 1991 borders, and Belarus become part of the European Union.

— There has been a clear increase in pressure on Lukashenka from Russia — the Zapad military exercises, his frequent trips to Russia for closed-door meetings, and Naryshkin visiting Minsk. What is the Kremlin’s goal?

— Putin wants to show that Lukashenka is completely controllable. He is using the Lukashenka dictatorship to scare the world again. The game continues about the alleged presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus, supposedly ready for use against global enemies. I don’t believe any of this. Putin doesn’t currently plan full incorporation of Belarus. He just wants an additional voice on the international stage — even Lukashenka’s. That’s why he’s not rushing to accelerate the absorption process. What he wants to show is that he fully controls the territory through his dictator.

Lukashenka has made himself controllable through economic dependence. If he even slightly steps out of line or shows some disobedience, he will be cut off from subsidies. But that doesn’t mean the West should rush to help Lukashenka become “independent,” as some suggest. That’s already impossible. He is a firmly entrenched dictator — pro-Russian, anti-Belarusian. And the sooner he exits the political scene, the better it will be for everyone, including his own entourage.

— Belarusian independence is clearly in danger. What can be done in the current circumstances to protect it?

— It is clearly in danger because of the Lukashenka regime. Fighting the Lukashenka regime is the same as protecting Belarusian independence. Yes, the situation in Belarus is difficult. We must act wisely and carefully, but we should not forget that only in our own country can we build a normal life. The fight against the regime means not recognizing and not accepting it. And the forms of expressing this, even in such a difficult time, Belarusians will find for themselves.