‘Consequences For Lukashenka Could Be The Most Unpredictable’

• 28.04.2025, 12:57

The dictator admitted what he had been denying for years.

One of the main topics that Belarusians are currently discussing is Lukashenka's statement about Pakistani migrants. Why does the dictator need 150 thousand citizens of this country? Is this an economic calculation, or another attempt to create pressure on the borders with the EU? The Charter97.org website spoke about this with Belarusian political scientist Anatol Kotau:

— There are several reasons. Let’s see the first one. This is the desire to seat the Europeans at the negotiating table, whom he openly speaks to and blackmails, threatening to bring 150 thousand Pakistanis to Belarus. And it is immediately absolutely clear that some of them, if they are brought, will immediately go to the border and try to break through it.

In fact, this is just a declaration, like, let's sit down at the negotiating table so that a new batch of 150 thousand migrants does not end up on the border with the European Union, does not storm the border with Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. This is a kind of blackmail towards the European Union.

There is also a story on another vector - with Russia, which has escalated against the backdrop of the Indian-Pakistani conflict, which began to flare up with renewed vigor last week. Most likely, it will not develop into something serious and will remain at the level of another border shootout, albeit at a fairly high level of escalation.

At the moment, Russia is trying by hook or by crook to build closer relations with India. And its junior partner, it turns out, is inviting citizens of a competing, effectively hostile country, to Belarus, to the territory of the "union state". Accordingly, this casts a shadow, including on relations between Russia and India. Therefore, this is a kind of blackmail in this direction: "Give me money, otherwise I will screw up your Russian-Indian relations." If Lukashenka gets money from one side or the other (and in his world it is better to get money from both sides at once), then, naturally, there will be no Pakistanis in Belarus on an industrial scale. This is if we are talking about the reason that can be called blackmail or the need for money.

The second reason, which Lukashenka himself blurts out and has already openly spoken about it, but did not name the reasons for the situation that has arisen, is that Belarus really has a catastrophic shortage of what is called "human capital" in the normal paradigm, and in Lukashenka's understanding - "labor force."

It is clear that no super-qualified Pakistani specialists will go to work in Belarus. Especially from the declared enterprises where they are needed, for example, cotton production and so on. The point is that they simply need working hands, that is, unskilled labor force.

Thus, Lukashenka actually admits what all representatives of the democratic forces of Belarus have been talking about for the last few years, only Belstat stubbornly denies this reality. Belarus has a major shortage of personnel to work at enterprises due to economic migration and repression, low birth rates, and also because over the past four years, the policy of the Lukashenka regime has dealt the most terrible blow to the demography of Belarus. He already needs at least some people, if only the enterprises would work.

- What pitfalls can await the Lukashenka regime if 150 thousand labor migrants come to the country? Will this raise social tensions in the country?

- I am not sure that the Pakistanis will be the best solution for this situation. On the other hand, they will also bring with them problems related to the fact that they are representatives of a completely different society. It is clear that Belarus is a tolerant country, Belarusians are a tolerant people, but no one has ever imported representatives of another religion, another nationality and culture on such a scale before. The consequences of such a step can be most unpredictable. This includes an increase in tension in society, because even when migrants were brought in on a smaller scale, who stormed the border and did not plan to stay on the territory of Belarus, conflicts arose.

And here we are talking about the import of those who are supposed to stay and live. Not a single country - neither Europe, nor the United States of America - has been able to properly solve the problem of integrating immigrant labor from countries with serious cultural differences: religious, national, and so on.

What the regime in Belarus was proud of - that it is a fairly monocultural country without ethnic conflicts - they themselves can destroy overnight, simply because they wanted to blackmail both sides, and at the same time there is a real shortage of workers. But again, the problem is that workers who will work in some industrial production are not a new industrial order, not a post-industrial story. They will not bring anything other than a temporary plugging of holes, no development, and this should also be kept in mind.

There is another suggestion that Pakistanis are part of the so-called package deal. In principle, this is not a secret - it was not hidden at the meetings that took place in Minsk. One of the tasks of the Belarusian regime is to intensify arms trade with Pakistan.

It is quite possible that in exchange for access to Pakistan's military orders (it is not yet clear what to offer in return), the Pakistani side offered: "And you take the extra ones from us, because you do not have enough." If so, then this will create a global tangle of new problems.

In addition to the fact that the order of execution of the elements of such a possible deal is unclear. Pakistanis can come to Belarus, and Lukashenka will not sell the weapons. He will not solve his main task - to get money from at least someone.

I very much doubt that Russia will fall for blackmail. I am almost sure that Europe will not fall for blackmail. Well, and it is difficult to assess Pakistan's solvency here. Lukashenka can create new problems inside Belarus without solving his main problem, which he has been concerned about for a year and a half - obtaining external financing. Europe suspended support for the regime, and refused to negotiate even for migrants. Russia reduced its financial support to a minimum. Things are not so good with foreign trade either. And they need to pay their security forces, who ensure the stability of the regime, from something.

— Pakistan is now on the brink of war with India. Can a dictator make new enemies for himself by getting closer to Islamabad?

— The very first and natural enemy is India. Moreover, it is absolutely unclear why this is being done, because India was considered one of the markets and sources of investment, at least in some more or less technological industries in Belarus. For example, the production of pharmaceuticals.

If Indian money can still be found in the Belarusian economy, then Pakistani money is unlikely. And why create problems for yourself out of thin air? I have only one answer: because money is really needed, and it was needed yesterday. This is not about some long-term practice.

The second story is that the plans for migrants will definitely cause discontent in Europe. The desire to talk to Lukashenka will not increase, rather, it will decrease. The migration issue is very painful for the new American administration.

As I already said, Russia will also be unhappy in this situation, because India is more important to it than Pakistan. They cooperate quite closely. India has been the main buyer of Russian oil in recent years, although there are problems with payments, but this cannot be said about Pakistan.

Plus, India has long been a large market for sales of Russian weapons, which is now also in question against the background of how Russian "no-analogues" are showing themselves in a real combat clash in the war that Putin unleashed against Ukraine. Accordingly, no one will be happy with this deal.

But I think that Minsk understands this perfectly well, so I am inclined to regard this simply as an attempt at blackmail, without its implementation in practice.