"There Are Two Scenarios For The Development Of The War In Ukraine"
- 10.05.2025, 11:27
A military expert assessed their likelihood and consequences.
There are two scenarios for the further development of the war in Ukraine. The first is a truce, during which the aggressor country Russia will only gain strength, compensate for losses, restore its combat capability and in a year will be able to start fighting on a wider scale; the second - there will be no truce, and the Russian Federation will continue to lose its personnel, equipment and resources at the same pace as now, and by the end of the year it will collapse.
This opinion was expressed by military and political observer of the group "Information Resistance" Alexander Kovalenko in an interview with "Glavred".
"There are two scenarios. If there is a truce, Russia will have a chance to take a break, compensate for losses, and restore combat capability. And in a year's time, it will be able to launch hostilities on a wider scale and a different level of bloodshed, not only against Ukraine, but also against Europe. And this is not just a scaremongering - these are quite rational, logical calculations, taking into account the potential that Russia has left from the Soviet Union, as well as what it can do in a year: what it can restore, how many people it can accumulate, how much ammunition, how much equipment it can restore, etc.," he said.
On the other hand, if Russia continues to lose personnel, equipment and resources at the same rate as it is losing now (and today Russia has a critical shortage of equipment), and there is no ceasefire, it will collapse by the end of this year, Kovalenko believes.
"Russia will not be able to compensate for the loss of equipment in the combat zone with its own forces. It is impossible to compensate for it with human resources alone. Now Russia is trying to do it, because it has an advantage in people, but this resource is running out - soldiers from North Korea are a vivid proof," - said the expert.
He noted that under the first scenario there is even a risk that the war will escalate into World War III.
"Therefore, two scenarios are possible: either Russia goes for a reset, and in a year we are waiting for more bloodshed, up to the level of the third world war, or Russia is exhausted, and at the end of 2025 will begin such changes that will return the capabilities of the Ukrainian Defense Forces to the level of the period of spring-summer 2022," - said Kovalenko.