Will Zelensky And Putin Meet In Istanbul?
- 13.05.2025, 19:15
The U.S. and Europe may invoke new sanctions.
Events around possible negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are developing rapidly. At the moment, it is known that Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has offered Russian ruler Putin a face-to-face meeting in Istanbul.
U.S. President Donald Trump has said he may join it. Will it come to this event?
The website Charter97.org talked to Vladimir Fesenko, a well-known Ukrainian political scientist and head of the Penta Center for Applied Political Research:
- So far, the probability of Putin's arrival in Istanbul is low, to put it mildly. At the moment there are no direct or even indirect signs of preparations for his arrival in Istanbul.
There is no confirmation that Putin is ready to come. If he is going to Istanbul, his guards and various security services should already be working in the city today to check everything, prepare everything and so on.
If we don't see anything of the kind during today, at most until tomorrow morning, then Putin won't be there.
I emphasize that in general there are no clear signs that he is going to come to Istanbul. If Putin won't be there, it's unlikely that Trump will be there either.
He could theoretically come. He's just about to finish his tour of the Arabian Peninsula countries. He could have come under two conditions. It's not just about Putin's presence in Istanbul, that's not enough, but about the readiness to sign a ceasefire agreement. This is important.
If there are no signals from the Russian side about such readiness, about the possibility of signing the agreement, there is no point for Trump to come.
The US president will come only to publicize this signing, to show himself in the role of the chief peacemaker, saying, "See, I have achieved this. The important thing is the picture. Putin and Zelensky should be its obligatory elements.
They should not sign anything, the ceasefire agreement is not their level. It will be signed by authorized representatives of the states, maybe military. It's up to both sides to decide.
So the task of Putin and Zelensky is only to be present, maybe to say thank you to Trump.
But the likelihood of such a scenario is not very high
Europe has actually issued an ultimatum, saying that if Putin does not cease fire for 30 days, sanctions will follow. The Russians continue their shelling. What can we expect, what kind of sanctions?
- Look, Bloomberg wrote today that the Europeans, who together with Zelensky put forward this ultimatum back on May 10, still have this intention, but they apparently decided to postpone action until after the talks in Istanbul.
- I think the Americans played a role here. They asked not to hurry yet. And for the Europeans it is important that there should be joint actions of Europe and the US on sanctions. Therefore, the final decision will be made after the talks in Istanbul. Trump should play a key role here. He must make up his mind.
Because at the moment it is still unlikely that a ceasefire will be reached in Istanbul. I emphasize that there are no signs of readiness for such an agreement.
It is not even a question of whether Putin and Zelensky will meet, and even at the level of authorized representatives there are no clear assumptions that such an agreement will be signed.
But they may agree, for example, to continue negotiations. This is the most optimal tactic for Russia: delaying the negotiation process. And then it will be necessary to determine what to do.
I think that the Europeans will put pressure on the Americans and Trump, to raise the question that it is necessary to determine, it is necessary to act. At a minimum - we need to increase sanctions pressure as a signal. Either the Russian Federation agrees to a ceasefire, or there will be increased sanctions and political pressure.
I am sure that this issue will be discussed in Istanbul after the conclusion of negotiations between the Ukrainian and Russian delegations. After that, Zelensky may have a meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Possibly, this meeting will be attended by the foreign ministers of those countries that have stated the need for sanctions: Britain, France, Germany and Poland. I think that Zelensky will meet with them, and then they will decide how to proceed.
I emphasize that both the Europeans and Zelensky will insist on strengthening sanctions pressure on Russia. But Trump will have the last word. Rubio will return to Washington and then the Americans will decide how to proceed.
- What developments should we expect? Are we closer to peace?
- We are not closer to peace yet. We are closer to negotiations. The very fact of negotiations is already a step forward. But there are still more questions than answers.
Let me give you a simple example: negotiations should be in a direct format, but the parties do not trust each other. Two countries, two peoples are divided by mutual strong hatred.
A full-scale, bloody war has been going on for more than three years. The hatred is already of a mass character. It is impossible to negotiate in these conditions without a mediator (or at least without an effective moderator).
So if there are Americans or at least Turks in the role of a mediator, there will be a chance for some kind of negotiation process. And then, apparently, the result will not be immediate. This is just the beginning. There can be different scenarios here.
Further on, everything depends on the effectiveness of the negotiations and, above all, on Russia's readiness to cease fire.