Oil Dealt A New Blow To The Russian Economy
- 13.05.2025, 15:03
Customs reported a drop in exports due to the collapse in prices.
Exports of goods from Russia in January-March amounted to $94.9 billion, according to the Federal Customs Service. This is 6.8% less than a year earlier. Imports were almost unchanged at $63.1 billion (+0.1%) - as a result, the trade balance shrank by 17.8% compared to January-March 2024 and amounted to $31.8 billion, writes The Moscow Times.
The collapse of oil prices had an impact. According to the Ministry of Economic Development, early last year the price of Russian Urals rose from $64.1 in January to $70.3, and this year it fell from $67.7 to $59 in March. More than half of Russia's exports are mineral products (which include oil and oil products), and their exports collapsed 14.1% to $55.4 billion in the quarter.
Russia's main export item declined the most. Almost as much, the sales abroad of food products and agricultural raw materials fell by 14% - $9 billion in three months. Exports of other goods grew: metals and metal products - by 2.9% to $14.2 billion, chemical products - by 23.4% to $7.5 billion, machinery and equipment - by 31.6% to $5.4 billion, wood and pulp and paper products - by 14.4% to $2.6 billion. But they could not compensate for the failure of oil and gas exports.
Exports at the beginning of the year fell in all directions. Deliveries to Asia brought in 5.4% less than in the first quarter of 2024 - $72.2 billion.According to China's General Administration of Customs, Russia supplied 14.7% less oil (24.3 million tons) to China in January-March than a year earlier. Exports to Europe fell by 9.4% ($14.5 billion).
In April, the decline is likely to continue: the Urals price fell even more sharply - to $54.8 on average for the month, according to the Ministry of Economic Development. Because of this, the government has sharply lowered the forecast of oil and gas budget revenues by 2.6 trillion rubles, and the State Duma is now considering amendments to the budget.
The fall in export revenues and the shrinking trade surplus are paradoxically not reflected in the ruble exchange rate. Over the quarter, it strengthened against the dollar from 102 to 85 rubles/$. According to the Central Bank, net sales of currency (the difference between sales and purchases) by the 29 largest exporters, who report to it on their operations, are generally stable. Central Bank managers, discussing the key rate in late April, noted that high interest rates on ruble loans and deposits could stimulate companies with foreign currency reserves to sell it more actively to finance current expenditures or to obtain additional income from placing funds in rubles.