Boryslav Bereza: Putin Was Not Ready For Such A Development Of Events

• 15.05.2025, 14:30

The consequences of refusing to fly to Istanbul could be catastrophic for Russia.

Delegations from Ukraine and Russia have arrived in Istanbul. The Ukrainian side is reportedly ready to discuss a 30-day ceasefire. What do Ukraine expect from this meeting? About this and more, the site Charter97.org talked to Ukrainian politician, former Verkhovna Rada deputy Boryslav Bereza:

- Considering the level of the delegation that came from Russia, nothing. They are just people without the right to make decisions, without the right to sign anything or agree on anything concrete. What we have seen now is an imitation of a storm of activity on the part of Russia, and more precisely, on the part of Putin.

Moreover, when we realized who was actually sent to Istanbul, it became clear: Putin actually decided to go for broke. Obviously, he was not prepared for such a development. Even the information picture inside Russia showed that they did not know what to do, how to get out of this situation. Or, to be more precise, they had no picture at all - because Putin was in doubt for a long time: to go or not to go, to announce or not to announce, who to send - himself or someone else.

They threw in all sorts of counter-versions and fake information, leaked pseudo-information through sources close to the Kremlin that Putin was not going. Then - that he was going after all. They were testing the situation and trying to communicate with Trump to see if he would fly to Istanbul.

If Trump had flown, Putin could not have failed to come. The head of the Kremlin was well aware that such consequences could be catastrophic, from which neither he nor Russia would be able to recover for a long time. As a result, he decided to raise the stakes and go all-in.

His decision is actually a spit in Trump's face. A virtual one, of course, but a spit in Trump's face, because Trump showed by his statements that he was expecting much more.

In Ukraine, almost 99% of experts immediately assessed Putin's potential visit at zero. This shows that our experts are already good at reading the psychological profile of the Kremlin dictator and predicting his actions.

The situation is similar with predictions of what will happen next. Well, they will agree to negotiate further, perhaps there will be some new stage. And the delegation came to show that Putin allegedly does not ignore the negotiations completely, especially since he himself announced them. But there will be no result that will radically change the situation.

The fact is that Putin has decided not to start any real negotiations until the end of his offensive campaign, which he plans to conduct in the summer or fall. He genuinely believes he can sell Ukraine out. He believes that once again he will "take Kiev in another three days," that "Europe will stop helping," and that "America will get tired of it all."

And even if he didn't believe it himself, he convinced himself that he would. So now nobody expects anything positive and cardinal. Especially indicative is the fact that Medinsky was sent away. Not Lavrov, not Ushakov - but Medinsky. The very man who represented Russia in the spring of 2022 at Istanbul-1.

The Russians make an allusion to that period, hinting that they are ready to start from the same place. But much has changed since then. Ukraine has its own powerful military-industrial complex, a very different army. Kiev for those "three days" turned into a million casualties for the Russian army. And today, any attempt to return to the past, to turn the page back, will end in nothing. So we are not expecting anything.

The only question is: how will Trump react? Will he duck or will he actively engage in sanctions policy against Russia and military support for Ukraine. After all, he actually received not just a refusal, but a spit in the face, a direct insult and disregard for his request: "Go and negotiate immediately!"

There are two options: either Trump will say that everything is fine - the first step has been made (and he can say that), or he will silently change his attitude and agree to impose the next, 17th package of sanctions, which the West has already approved today. That's why we are waiting for Trump's reaction, that's what is really expected in Ukraine.

- What do you think, what variant of Trump's reaction is the most likely?

- You know, it's like in the anecdote about the blonde who was asked: "What is the probability that when you go outside, you will see a dinosaur?". The blonde replies: "50/50 - I'll either see one or I won't."

Nobody knows, it's pure lottery. No one can predict what Trump will say or declare today. Yesterday he calls Zelensky a dictator, tomorrow he calls him the best president of Ukraine, and the day after tomorrow he says that it was Zelensky who started the war against Russia. Trump changes his opinion and rhetoric more often than the weather this season.

- What scenarios for the development of events can be assumed at this point?

- Either there will be sanctions, or there will continue to be loud statements without real action. Now the situation is as follows: until the Russians' offensive is over (and they plan to start it soon), it will be impossible to talk to Russia about anything, it is clear.

Something may change after this operation stalls, when the Russians see that they have not achieved results. And for them, success means not only reaching the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, but also an attempt to capture some more or less large city, which they have been unable to do all this time.

The maximum they have achieved is a temporary capture of Kherson, which they lost long ago. The only thing we can predict is that the Russians will try to continue attacking, their task is focused on one goal.

Our task is to help the Armed Forces of Ukraine to repel this offensive, to provide them with all possible conditions. And only then it will be possible to talk about something new. But this is not before the fall. It is also important that during this period the West begins to consolidate its efforts and finally stop talking about hellish sanctions and start actually implementing them.

And it is very important that consultations with China begin on the issue of ending hybrid assistance to Russia. This is what can accelerate the end of the war. Today China is interested in cooperation with Europe, and this may become a bargaining chip in satisfying certain interests of the Celestial Empire.