Natallia Radzina: Three Steps Must Be Taken To Defeat Russia

• 19.05.2025, 13:39

Putin is weak, he is not to be feared.

The President Lennart Mary Security Conference was held in Tallinn on 16-18 May. It was attended by Estonian President Alar Karis, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas, Foreign Ministers of Poland, Estonia and Lithuania Radoslav Sikorski, Margus Cahkna and Kjastutis Budrys, politicians and members of EU parliaments, a number of leading experts and journalists.

At the opening panel of the event, the well-known American writer and historian Yuri Felshtinsky and the editor-in-chief of the Charter97.org website Natallia Radzina spoke about threats from Russia and Belarus to Ukraine and NATO countries. The discussion was organized by the Open Estonia Foundation.

Natallia Radzina spoke about the threats posed to Europe by Lukashenko's regime, which has become an absolute puppet of the Russian Federation:

- Belarus has had a pro-Russian dictatorship for more than 30 years. The country is a Russian springboard for aggression. The military alliance between Belarus and Russia has a pronounced anti-Ukrainian and anti-NATO orientation. This is evidenced by the military doctrine of Belarus and Russia, as well as by the military exercises on Belarusian territory, Zapad and Shield, which have been held since 1999. In 2022, as a result of the same joint Belarusian-Russian exercises, the Russian army invaded Ukraine. The breakthrough to Kaliningrad and a nuclear strike on Vilnius and Warsaw were practiced at such exercises. For the West it was very open, demonstrating anti-Western orientation and preparation for war against the EU. But unfortunately there was no reaction to them. Right up to Russia's large-scale attack on Ukraine.

It is worth noting that in December 2024, Belarus and Russia signed the Treaty on Security Guarantees, which creates new threats. New Russian military bases may be placed on the territory of Belarus in addition to those we have today. At present, the first echelon of Russian air defense systems, the Russian tracking station in Gantsevichy and the Russian Navy communication center in Vileika are placed on the territory of Belarus. The country also has an extensive network of military airfields - more than 20. At any moment, hundreds of Russian airplanes can appear at dozens of Belarusian airfields.

This year, Belarus will host a major Russian-Belarusian exercise "West-2025". According to Ukrainian sources and the U.S. Institute for the Study of War, 10 Russian divisions - about 100,000 troops - may be brought into Belarus by September to conduct these exercises.

In the course of the exercises, a repeated attack on Ukraine from the country's territory and even an attack on NATO countries, primarily the Baltic states, cannot be ruled out.

It should not be mistaken that Russia is unable to fight on several fronts today. Yes, today it may lack tanks and other heavy military equipment, but warfare has changed - both tactically and strategically. Today's warfare is about drones. And Russia is producing UAVs in huge quantities.

Natallia Radzina warns - Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are under threat:

- 20 kilometers from the Belarusian border is Vilnius, 30 kilometers from Daugavpils, one kilometer from the Russian border is Narva. With the use of modern drones, these territories can be occupied quite easily and quickly.

How to prevent this threat? Decisive military and political steps are necessary. Militarily, Europe today needs to strengthen its defenses very quickly, to be ready to immediately repel an attack from Russia. Both the European Union and the NATO defense bloc need to reform their clumsy and bureaucratic systems as soon as possible to be able to defend their borders.

As soon as Belarusian and Russian troops approach the borders of the Baltic states, we should immediately go to war with Russia, retaliating by striking at its territory, all the way to Moscow.

It may shock you to hear this thought, but when I hear the perplexing "why hit Moscow," I get the question, "Why can we hit Kiev?" We are used to Kiev being bombed every night for three years, but we cannot imagine that there could be retaliatory strikes on the capital of Russia, which is now waging this bloody war. We need to be ready for serious steps.

If Russian nuclear blackmail continues, we should deploy nuclear missiles from the arsenal of France and Great Britain in the countries bordering Russia and Belarus - Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. It is worth stating that in case of a nuclear strike, a response will follow. I think the Russians will do nothing in response.

The editor-in-chief of Charter97.org was asked whether Lukashenko could influence Putin's decision to participate in the war. Natallia Radzina said that the Belarusian dictator is an absolute puppet of the Kremlin:

- If we talk about an illegitimate power, it exists solely on bayonets and is held by force through Russian support. Lukashenko has been an illegitimate ruler since 1996, when he held an illegal referendum and there was a coup d'état in the country.

As for his policies, Lukashenko is an absolute puppet of Putin. He has existed all these years on Russian subsidies - cheap oil and gas, interest-free loans that he has not paid back, and there has been constant forceful assistance from Russia. In 2020 he held on to power thanks to support from Moscow. Therefore, in 2022, the territory of Belarus was used by Russia, and Lukashenko in this situation could not oppose anything.

Talking about the future of Russia, historian Yuri Felshtinsky expressed the opinion that the continuation of the war deprives the Russian Federation of chances for democratization:

- Putin is in a fundamentally better situation than before. In the person of the Trump administration, he has found an ally. And the situation could get worse. If we see the concentration of Russian troops in Belarus, it will mean that either he is preparing a new offensive against Kiev or planning an attack on Europe. This is a concrete moment that should be watched carefully. If we see a concentration of Russian troops in Belarus, it would mean a serious risk of invasion for Europe.

If Putin takes over Ukraine, Russian troops will not be demobilized and sent to live in peace. They will be sent to Europe. Moldova will be invaded first, and then the Baltic states.

I want to say a few words about the future of Russia. We all now underestimate the consequences of the war unleashed by Putin. However it will not end. Russia will recover from the consequences of this war like Hitler's Germany for 80 years. The longer this war lasts, the more Russia cuts itself off from Europe. It is no coincidence that China has become Russia's natural ally. The return to Europe will take decades, it won't be a year or two or three, even if the war stops tomorrow, which I don't really believe.

Natallia Radzina believes that the West missed the moment when Russia began to rebuild the empire:

- I am convinced that in '91 the Soviet Union did not collapse. Only Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia managed to escape from the "evil empire" and immediately joined the European Union and NATO. As for the rest of the republics, they remained in Russia's sphere of influence by default. No, there was no conference like in Yalta in 1945, but the West gave our countries to Russia.

I should remember that the union of Russia and Belarus, about the danger of which I spoke, began to be built in 1995 under the democrat Boris Yeltsin. And the West did not pay attention to it. The new seizure of territories and the restoration of the USSR began precisely with Belarus. The war in Ukraine began in 2014, and in 1995 Russia began to restore the Soviet Union through the seizure of Belarus with the help of dictator Lukashenko.

The situation is the same in other post-Soviet countries - dictatorships in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan exist thanks to Russian support. Of course, China plays its role there, but the empire continues to maintain its influence in these countries.

The journalist draws attention to the fact that the West had no strategy in relation to Belarus:

- There was no serious support for the democratic opposition, which has been fighting Lukashenko since 1994, when he came to power, there was no serious pressure on the regime, there was active trade with Belarus. EU countries and Ukraine were actively buying Belarusian oil products made from Russian oil and Belarusian potash. The human rights situation was simply turned a blind eye - statements were made, "visa sanctions" were imposed against officials, but nothing more. Economic sanctions against Lukashenko began to be imposed only in 2021, when he boarded a Ryanair airplane with a blogger on board. That is, when he committed a direct terrorist act. Then they were imposed when migrants attacked Poland, Lithuania and Latvia from the territory of Belarus. Then - after the outbreak of war. And before that, despite the events of 2020, when a million Belarusians took to the streets, and Lukashenko brutally suppressed these protests, there were no economic sanctions.

If the EU had reacted in August-September 2020, perhaps it would have been possible to defeat this dictatorship and there was no attack on Ukraine from the territory of Belarus. A huge opportunity was missed. And all because they turned a blind eye, traded with the regime, took advantage of the fact that Belarus is a transit country, but did not pay attention to the suffering of the Belarusian people.

Yuri Felshtinsky drew attention to the fact that behind Putin's back there are special services, which actually control Russia:

- Putin should not be looked at as a lone dictator like Lukashenko. Behind the back of the "collective Putin" stands the largest secret service in the world, which has a huge budget. A regime has been created that is closest to fascist, but it still has open borders and no death penalty. We are dealing with a serious adversary, which is the State Security.

The difference between the USSR and today's Russia is that the KGB used to be under the political control of the Communist Party and the budget that the intelligence services received from the state. In today's Russia, the special services run the country without control, and the budget is all the resources of the Russian Federation. This is a fundamentally different system. For the first time in history, without exaggeration, the state is run by the State Security. The tasks of the security services are aggressive, ambitious and they can be stopped today only thanks to Ukraine. If the "Ukrainian dam" is broken, Russia will start a war against Russia.

Natallia Radzina agrees with Yuri Felshtinsky that Europe's main task should be to help Ukraine:

- But the most important thing is to stop being afraid of Russia. We need to pay attention to economic indicators. The EU and UK GDP in nominal terms is 22 trillion euros, while Russia's GDP is two trillion. A huge country, and such numbers. Plus they are now spending colossal amounts of money on war. It's money going nowhere, Russia is losing population and labor force. We just need to step up and impose really tough sanctions, stop buying oil, embargo on oil, oil products, gas. Also help Ukraine. Also, as Yuri Felshtinsky keeps saying, they should be allowed to hit Moscow with long-range missiles. Then the war will be over.

When today they talk about strengthening the defense capabilities of the European Union and the allocation of 1 trillion euros for this, it is necessary to include the media in this project. Because the war is going on in the information field. Support of the media, which oppose Russian propaganda, is extremely important. If we talk about Belarus, independent media are in a very difficult situation.

I am the editor-in-chief of the country's largest website "Charter'97". We have been working for 28 years. We have a huge audience in Belarus, but the situation is critical, there is no support from European funds. Everything is clear with the USA, Trump has blocked everything, but the Europeans do not understand how important is the work of the Belarusian independent mass media, which "propagandized" the Belarusian army, which as a result did not enter the war. The territory for the war was provided, missiles were flying, but the army did not enter the war, because the Belarusian servicemen do not want to fight. And we, the Belarusian media, are to our credit.

But we have ceased to be of interest to the West. Recently, I talked to a European diplomat and he said: "Probably, we will no longer support democratization in Belarus and independent media, we need to strengthen our defenses." And this is a huge mistake. One should understand that the war is going on in the information field. Therefore, we need to invest money and support real projects that affect people.

Yuri Felshtinsky was asked why Russians go to war. The historian is convinced that Russian citizens make a conscious choice:

- I emphasize that there is no death penalty in Russia. A young man who goes into the army by conscription or on a contract basis certainly has the option of not going to kill. The country keeps its borders open. People going to fight in Ukraine have a choice that they did not take advantage of. Historically in Russia human life has cost nothing. Russia in all wars has always lost more people than all other participants. People are used to their lives being worthless. Therefore, Putin has the resources for a permanent war. In this format, he can wage war for a long time.

The question is how to make him stop. We had hoped that Putin would move to fight the war himself, realizing that the price for this war was too high. The West had an insane tactic: Russia must not win, Ukraine must not lose. This was a joint decision of Europe and the US. The West feared that Russia's defeat would lead to nuclear escalation, and the collapse of the Russian Federation would lead to even greater destabilization.

Natallia Radzina urged Europeans not to fear the collapse of Russia:

- The war against Ukraine will destabilize the Russian Federation itself. Internal conflicts are inevitable. New wars on the territory of Russia itself are possible. In any case, even with the democratization of Russian politics, the peoples of the Russian Federation will have the right to self-determination, which will also lead to its disintegration. It is inevitable. Therefore, we should not delude ourselves that it will never happen, but think about what to do in this case.