ISW: Putin Is Changing His Priorities In The War
- 3.05.2025, 9:26
Because of the "slippage" of the offense.
The Russian army is capturing less and less territory in Ukraine, but losing a lot of men and resources. Putin may be changing his attitude toward further offensive operations.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported.
The agency noted that Russian advances on the front have slowed over the past four months, but the aggressor's forces continue to suffer personnel losses comparable to those suffered during an intensive offensive in September-December 2024.
Losses and slowdown of the offensive
So, according to ISW estimates, in January, February, March and April 2025, Russian troops captured territory totaling 1,627 km2 in Ukraine and the Kursk region. According to the daily reports of the AFU General Staff, the Russian losses during the last four months amounted to 160,600 soldiers, which means an average of 99 losses for every square kilometer.
The analysts estimate that Russian troops captured approximately 496 km2 in January 2025; approximately 313 km2 in February 2025; approximately 601 km2 in March 2025; and approximately 217 km2 in April 2025.
The ISW also noted a slowdown in the Russian offensive as the Russian army has faced better-defended Ukrainian positions in and around major cities such as Kupyansk, Chasov Yar, Toretsk and Pokrovsk over the past four months. Russian forces are currently suffering higher casualties per square kilometer than they did in the fall of 2024.
The ISW noted that between January and April 2025, Russian advances were 45% slower than between September and December 2024, although the casualty rate declined by only 10% during that time.
"In recent months, the ISW has seen no noticeable slowdown in the pace of Russian offensive operations along the front line, despite the slower pace of advances. This suggests that Russia is generating enough forces to sustain these losses without having to eliminate priority on any part of the frontline," the report said.
Putin's Pressure in Negotiations
In the meantime, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is trying to maintain the pace of offensive operations to pressure Ukraine in ceasefire negotiations. ISW estimates that the Kremlin is trying to delay the talks in order to gain additional concessions from the U.S. and Ukraine and additional victories on the battlefield.
It remains unclear, however, whether Russia will be able to maintain sufficient military strength to continue offensive operations in Ukraine indefinitely due to rising economic costs for social benefits and lump-sum payments to Russian servicemen.
The agency recalled that Russia's current and projected economic struggles, closely tied to the The Russian army may also start building fortifications near forward positions," the report said.